Does the Home Run Derby really hurt hitters?

As the All Star Break approaches next week, we are starting to hear the finalized rosters for the all star game and the home run derby. It has become increasingly common for the top home run hitters to skip the home run derby for a variety of reasons. One that has always interested me is that the Home Run Derby can mess up a players swing, and they can see negative results in the second half of the season. For today's blog, I decided to research whether the Derby actually has a negative impact on a players swing or if it is an easy scapegoat for star players to duck out of an increased workload.

This research will only include the previous 5 Home Run Derby's (2015-2019). I wanted to not only evaluate performance statistics, but also look at Statcast swing metrics to see if those were impacted by Derby participants. Since Statcast has only been around since 2015, I kept my research to that year and beyond. I accumulated a total of 80 players from 2015-2019, 40 of whom participated in the Derby, and 40 of whom who did not. All 80 players were at the top of the home run leaderboards when the All Star Break began. This would allow me to most accurately reflect on the Derby's impact to a players second half of their season.

Home Run Derby Participants

In the images above, you can see the difference between the average players pre-all star game stats and his post-all star game stats. There isn't a significant difference in their batting metrics until we get to Comparative OPS. Comparative OPS is also known as tOPS+ and it standardizes a player's OPS on a 100 level scale. 100 is average and anything greater than or less than that average number represents the percentage increase or decrease from that number. For example, if a player had a tOPS+ of 120, they are performing 20% better than their normal performance. This allows us to compare players like Mike Trout and Odubel Herrera in a singular season because it puts everyone on the same level playing field. From this research, we can tell that on average, Home Run Derby participants performance decline by 15.88% from the first half of the season. That's a significant drop-off in performance from the first half of the season to the second half. I wanted to look at swing metrics as well to see if any of those would be impacted but on average, there isn't any noticeable difference in Exit Velos, Launch Angles, and Hard Hit %. This is good data, but we need to compare it to the high home run hitters who did not perform in the Home Run Derby to see if there is truly an impact on performance.

Non-Home Run Derby Participants

In the two images above, you will see the difference in performance by Non-Derby participants. Just like the Derby participants, the only significant change is in the Comparative OPS+ where average performance decreased by almost 18% from the first half of the season to the second half of the season. I also compared the same swing metrics and found no significant difference between the two.

Results

As shown from the data above, Home Run Derby participants see an average drop-off in performance of about 16%, whereas those who skipped the Derby see an average drop-off in performance of about 18%. This is extremely important because it tells us that the Home Run Derby does not really impact a player's performance after the All Star Break. Players likely see a decline in performance because they can not sustain the level in which they are playing at. Think of Kyle Schwarber's hot streak in the month of June. He will not keep up this ridiculous pace of Home Runs over the entirety of a season, regardless if he were to be in the Home Run Derby or not. This is something that will likely be faced by other home run hitters such as Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They are having incredible, unsustainable beginnings to the season and it is a pace that is extremely difficult to maintain over the course of an 162 game schedule.

If Ohtani has a major decline in his performance over the second half of the season, I worry that many baseball fans and players will look towards the Home Run Derby to be at fault. As of 7/5/2021, Ohtani is performing 57% better than his normal career performance. Do not be surprised if we see a falloff of his numbers and do not be quick to jump to the anti-Derby bandwagon. If the Home Run Derby really messed with a player's swing, why is it that on average their launch angles, exit velocities, and hard hit percentages stay true to the players who did not participate in the Derby? We have to remember that these are major league baseball players that have been playing baseball for as long as they can remember. They've taken tens and maybe hundreds of thousands of swings with a repeatable motion alongside hitting coaches who are professionals in the industry for dozens of years. Taking at most 100 swings in a night would not mess up their swing to the extent that most people often assume. Ohtani is performing at an extremely unsustainable level and it is extremely likely that his numbers will fall off, regardless of his performance or his participation in the 2021 Home Run Derby.